Labour Market Analysis | October 2020


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 13 October 2020 The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 2,731,700, in September - up by 28,100 on last month and by 1.49 million since March, and the claimant rate is 7.6%. The ONS figure for 18-24 claimant unemployed is 529,400 in September, up by 294,400 or 125.2% on March. Vacancies in September have now recovered by 190,000 after falling 470,000 between February and May. Unemployment is 1,522,000, up by 71,000 from last month’s revised figure (quarterly headline has risen by 138,000) and the unemployment rate 4.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points on last month and increased by 0.4 percentage points on last quarter. The employment rate is 75.6% and fell by 0.2 percentage points on last month’s revised figure and down by 0.3 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure. Learning and Work Institute comment This full briefing supplements the short briefing we published earlier on Tuesday 13 October. This briefing sets out analysis of ONS labour market statistics released on the morning of 13 October 2020. The data cover the number of people claiming benefits up to September 2020, and employment and unemployment figures for the period June to August 2020. Stephen Evans, chief executive of Learning and Work Institute, commented: ‘The impact of the crisis is becoming clearer. Employment is down 482,000 since the start of the crisis, with revisions bringing it more in line with payroll data. Adding to the sense of a gathering storm, there are 3.5 million people out of work but wanting a job and redundancies rose by a record 114,000 last quarter. 'The partial reopening of the economy and the furlough scheme helped to support employment over the summer. But with around two million people still furloughed and economic restrictions tightening in many parts of the country, a long winter lies ahead. The Winter Economy Plan will help, but we need more ambitious support for jobs, incomes and retraining.’ Paul Bivand, associate director for statistics and analysis at Learning and Work Institute said: 'This set of labour market statistics shows major changes from those published last month. There have been a series of revisions to estimates due to the impact of the crisis on data collection. The balance of people responding to the Labour Force Survey changed with lockdown, and, in particular, meant that tenants and younger adults were less well represented. The Office for National Statistics has revised all the figures affected, back to the January to March dataset. 'The net result is that employment has been revised down and unemployment up. 'There have been a series of other changes through the briefing. A number of datasets have not yet been revised. These include the analysis of unemployment by age, and long-term unemployment, which we regularly report in this briefing, and a range of experimental monthly and weekly releases from the Labour Force Survey that have been tracking the progress of the crisis in more detail. We have been covering these in the short briefing. ONS have stated these will be released next month.' Employment is down 482,000 since the start of the crisis and fell by 153,000 on the quarter. Timelier HMRC payroll employment data have fallen by 670,000 since March but has stabilised at this lower level over the summer. There are now 3.5 million people who are out of work but would like a job. Unemployment rose only gradually, with sharper rises in the number of people who are inactive but want a job. The most recent data suggest a shift, with more people looking for work and fewer inactive but wanting a job (though still higher than pre-crisis). Over the summer the gradual easing of lockdown, partial re-opening of the economy and the Eat Out To Help Out scheme meant some furloughed workers returning to their jobs. However, the number of hours worked per week in June to August remained 15% below pre-crisis levels. Self-employment fell by 240,000 this quarter. The number of employees increased by 92,000 in the quarter. Since the start of the crisis, self-employment has fallen by 472,000, while employee numbers have risen by 41,000.
	Chart 1: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count rose by 28,070 in September, taking the total to 2,731,744. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment rose by 22,080 to 2,718,900. This change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today.
	Chart 2: UK unemployment (ILO) - the official estimate The latest unemployment figure is 1,522,000. It has increased by 71,000 on last month's revised estimate, and by 125,000 from the figure published last month. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.5%.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The youth unemployment figures have not been updated in October, so the latest figure is 563,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose in September by 3,100, to 529,400. There are now 159,000 more young claimants of Universal Credit or Jobseeker's Allowance than the number of unemployed young people who are not in education.
	Chart 4: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies recovered very slightly this month, to 488,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures shows a more substantial recovery from 327,000 in May, to 517,000 in September. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 5: Experimental single month vacancies – whole economy survey The Office for National Statistics experimental single month vacancy estimates include sectoral information. As these are not seasonally adjusted, it is better to look at annual changes. This is a new presentation, which we hope will show the context in an improved way.
	Chart 6: Unemployment rates by age The unemployment figures by age have not been updated in this release. However, we think it is useful to give this context from last month's release. The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 12.3% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.9%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.6%. The quarterly change is up 1.6 for 18 to 24 year olds, up 0.1 for 25 to 49 year olds, and up 0.1 for the over-50s.
	Chart 7: UK employment Employment has fallen by 75,000 on last month's revised figure, to 32,591,000. The data revision accounted for a further fall of 314,000 on last month's published figure.
	Chart 8: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate has fallen by 0.3 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.6%. The data revision accounted for a further 0.6 percentage points fall on last month's published figure.
	Chart 9: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness rose, while the latest benefit figures (for February 2020) rose. The survey revision has resulted in a reassessment of the recent trend - previous figures had shown a sharp drop in the inactive, long-term sick, which has now been revised into a continuing upwards trend. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Universal Credit without work requirements (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. Survey responses as to the reasons for inactivity may be volatile at the moment.
	Chart 10: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents This chart shows claimants of out of work benefits as lone parents (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families). The survey figures (showing those looking after family) fell sharply while benefit measures continued to fall in the latest (February 2020) data.
	Chart 11: Employment rate annual change in regions to– June 2020 to August 2020 Compared to last year, four regions showed a rise in the employment rate, while eight showed a fall. The largest rises were in London and the North West, and the largest falls were in the South West and Wales.
	Chart 12: Unemployment rate annual change in regions to – June 2020 to August 2020 Compared to last year, ten regions showed a rise in unemployment, while two showed a fall. The largest rises were in the South West, and the North East. The falls were in Wales and the East Midlands.
	Chart 13: Inactivity rate annual change in regions to– June 2020 to August 2020 Compared to last year, six regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, led by the South West and Wales, while six showed falls, led by the North East and the North West.
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