Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 16 October 2018
Learning and Work Institute comment |
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Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment figure is 1,363,000. It rose by 3,000 from the figure published last month. On the basis of later claimant count figures, Learning and Work Institute estimates that unemployment may rise, although this remains highly uncertain. The unemployment rate remained at 4.0%. |
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Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 33.2%; (453,000). |
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Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 8,000 from last month’s figure and is now 125,000. The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 18,900. The count fell by 500 this month as Universal Credit roll-out reduces the JSA population. |
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Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 283,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 152,300. |
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Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 9.6% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 3.2%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.9%. The quarterly change is down 1.0 for 18 to 24 year olds, up 0.1 for 25 to 49 year olds, and up 0.1 for the over-50s. |
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Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (960,000) has fallen in the past quarter by 43,000 , or 4.3%. The fall was entirely among the unemployed, with the number of economically inactive young people not in full-time education or training increasing. |
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Chart 7: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has fallen by 24,000 since last month’s figures, to 464,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 1,350, to 177,400. There are 126,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance, 41.8% of all unemployed young people who are not students. |
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Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count rose by 18,500 in September, taking the total to 942,900. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment is up by 12,000 to 932,800. This unadjusted national change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today. Learning and Work Institute's seasonally adjusted estimate increased by 19,300 to 947,700. |
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Chart 9: Jobseeker’s Allowance only – new claims and leavers The number of new Jobseeker’s Allowance claims fell by 2,700 this month, to 49,600. This does not include Universal Credit new claims (or leavers). Meanwhile the number of JSA leavers also fell, by 3,400, to 65,600. The rollout of Universal Credit affects these figures. Now, 58% of claims in the Claimant Count are Universal Credit. UC passed the total of JSA claims in June 2018. |
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Chart 10: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimant count leavers rate – leavers as percentage of ‘could leave’ Learning and Work Institute estimates that the ‘leavers rate’ – people who have left the claimant count as a proportion of those who could leave it – has fallen to 14.3% after several months of rises. |
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Chart 11: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimants staying through each three-month threshold (seasonally adjusted) These measures show an increase in off-flow rates for claimants at all lengths of unemployment. The proportion staying beyond three months has fallen to 47.9%. |
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Chart 12: Jobseeker’s Allowance – proportion of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed The proportion of starters becoming 12-month claimants is now 14.5%. This is likely to rise over the next few months as the proportion of starters becoming 9-month claimants has risen by 0.5 percentage points over the last three months. These figures are based on those in Chart 11, but show the patterns of the same people passing through successive quarterly thresholds. |
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Chart 13: Vacancies – whole economy survey Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) fell slightly this month, to 832,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average. |
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Chart 14: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. Learning and Work Institute estimates this figure may rise next month, if unemployment follows the claimant count up. |
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Chart 15: UK employment Employment fell by 3,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,394,000. |
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Chart 16: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.5%. |
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Chart 17: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness fell this month, but is up 30,000 over the quarter. The latest benefit figures are for February, and exclude Universal Credit claimants. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. |
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Chart 18: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents The survey figures (showing those looking after family) rose while the benefit measures (latest for February) fell slowly. Lone parents are increasingly claiming Universal Credit as Full Service rolls, out, but compatible figures to Income Support or JSA are not available. This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families). |
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Chart 19: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – June to August 2018 This quarter, 4 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by Wales and the North West. The employment rate fell in 8 regions, led by Northern Ireland and the South East. |
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Chart 20: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – June to August 2018 8 regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. 4 showed a worsening. The rises were led by the Northern Ireland and the South East. |
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Chart 21: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – June to August 2018 Overall, there was a 0.2 percentage point rise in the inactivity rate. 8 regions showed rises in inactivity, led by the Scotland and the East of England. |
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