Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 19 February 2019
Learning and Work Institute comment |
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Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment figure is 1,363,000. It has reduced by 7,000 from the figure published last month. On the basis of later claimant count figures, Learning and Work Institute estimates that unemployment may rise, although this remains highly uncertain. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.0%. |
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Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 28.4%; (387,000). |
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Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has risen by 9,000 from last month’s figure and is now 146,000. We do not show Universal Credit long-term claims for young people as these do not clearly show the period unemployed on UC, rather it shows the total unemployed, inactive or employed with an active UC claim. During a UC claim, a person may, among other changes, move from work into unemployment or vice versa. The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 19,100. |
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Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 265,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 151,400. |
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Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.4% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 3.0%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.7%. The quarterly change is up 0.3 for 18 to 24 year olds, down 0.2 for 25 to 49 year olds, and down 0.1 for the over-50s. |
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Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (951,000) has risen in the past quarter by 9,000, or 0.9%. The rise was entirely among the unemployed, with the number of inactive young people not in full-time education or training falling. |
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Chart 7: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has fallen by 1,000 since last month’s figures, to 510,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 5,000, to 196,000. There are 160,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance, 46.6% of all unemployed young people who are not students. |
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Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count is up by 14,198 in January, taking the total to 1,010,655. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment rose by 42,000 to 1,001,000. This latter change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today. L&W's seasonally adjusted estimate rose by 21,800 to 1,020,000. |
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Chart 9: Jobseeker’s Allowance – new claims and leavers The number of new Jobseeker’s Allowance claims rose by 2,500 this month, to 26,100. Meanwhile the number of leavers fell, by 9,700, to 37,300. As Universal Credit is now fully rolled out, new Jobseeker's Allowance claims will be for the National Insurance Contribution-related JSA benefit, which can be received as well as Universal Credit (in the same way as Unemployment Benefit and Income Support worked before 1996). |
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Chart 10: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimant count leavers rate – leavers as percentage of ‘could leave’ Learning and Work Institute estimates that the ‘leavers rate’ – people who have left the claimant count as a proportion of those who could leave it – has fallen sharply to 10.3% as Universal Credit rollout has reduced new JSA claims over the last few months, as new claimants are most likely to leave benefits quickly.. |
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Chart 11: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimants staying through each three-month threshold (seasonally adjusted) These measures show a decrease in off-flow claimants at all lengths of unemployment. These are JSA claimants, so management of the rapidly reducing JSA numbers may be less effective. The proportion staying beyond three months has risen to 54.6%. |
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Chart 12: Jobseeker’s Allowance – proportion of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed The proportion of starters becoming 12-month claimants is now 15.7%. This is likely to fall over the next few months as the proportion of starters becoming 9-month claimants has fallen by 1.4 percentage points over the last three months. These figures are based on those in Chart 11, but show the patterns of the same people passing through successive quarterly thresholds. |
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Chart 13: Vacancies – whole economy survey Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) rose this month, to 870,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average. |
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Chart 14: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. Learning and Work Institute estimates this figure may remain at the same level next month. |
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Chart 15: UK employment Employment increased by 55,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,597,000. |
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Chart 16: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.8%. |
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Chart 17: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – incapacity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness rose, while the updated benefit figure fell. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. The benefit figures do not yet include Universal Credit full service claimants. |
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Chart 18: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents The survey figures (showing those looking after family) are decreasing slowly while benefit measures have fallen. This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families). The benefit figures do not yet include Universal Credit full service claimants. |
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Chart 19: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – October to December 2018 This quarter, 10 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by Wales and Northern Ireland. The employment rate fell in two regions, London and the West Midlands. |
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Chart 20: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – October to December 2018 Six regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. Six showed a worsening. The rises were led by the North East and the East Midlands. |
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Chart 21: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – October to December 2018 Overall, there was a 0.2 percentage point fall in the inactivity rate. Three regions showed rises in inactivity, led by the West Midlands and London. |
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