Share
Making learning and work count

Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute
16 May 2023


  • Unemployment is 1,329,000, up by 36,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline is up by 60,000) and the unemployment rate 3.9%, has risen by 0.1 percentage points on last month and by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter.
  • The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,572,400, up by 46,700 on last month's figure.
  • The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 983,000, down by 18,000 on the quarter, representing 14.4% of the youth population (down by 0.3 percentage points).
  • Youth unemployment (including students) is 482,000, up by 11,000 on the quarter.
  • Vacancies in Feb-Apr 2023 decreased by 31,000 to 1,083,000 (in the ONS official series), marking the eleventh month in a row of declining job vacancies.
  • There are now 1.2 unemployed people per vacancy.
  • The employment rate is 75.9% (up by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s published figure and up by 0.2 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure).

Stephen Evans, Chief Executive at the Learning and Work Institute, said:

‘Real wages have fallen for 11 months in a row, driven by high inflation. Inflation is likely to ease in the months ahead, providing some respite for hard-hit households. But the longer-term picture is that average wages are £11,000 per year lower than if pre-financial crisis trends had continued. To end these lost years, we need to restart growth.

Rises in employment and falls in economic inactivity are welcome and may indicate an easing of labour shortages. But worryingly the number of people economically inactive due to long-term sickness hit another record high. The UK's employment rate recovery remains the slowest in the G7. Only one in ten out-of-work disabled and older people get help to find work each year. That needs to change.’

Helen Gray, Chief Economist at the Learning and Work Institute, said:

‘The first quarter of 2023 has seen the highest net number of people moving from economic inactivity to employment since records began in the early 2000s. The 0.4ppt reduction in the rate of economic inactivity is to be welcomed, but the numbers economically inactive due to long-term sickness rose by 86,000 between the last quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 and now stand at 2.55 million - the highest level seen since records began 30 years ago. Action is needed to reverse the rising levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness which have emerged since the pandemic.’

Labour Market Briefing

Employment increased by 182,000 between October to December 2022 and January to March 2023. In the last 12 months employment has risen by 363,000.

Unemployment rose by 60,000 between October to December 2022 and January to March 2023. Over this period, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% in the most recent quarter.

Economic inactivity reduced by 156,000 between October to December 2022 and January to March 2023. The inactivity rate has fallen by 0.4 percentage points to 21% in the most recent quarter.

The national claimant count is up by 46,700 to 1,572,400.

Youth unemployment is up by 11,000. There are 482,000 unemployed young people, and 331,000 (4.8% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education.

Self-employment is up by 150,000 this year. The number of employees rose by 194,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment increased by 21,000 this quarter to 0.8 million, 9.5% of all part-time workers.

Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO)

The latest unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%.

chart 1
Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared

The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 243,000 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.

chart 2
Chart 3: Youth unemployment

The number of unemployed young people (aged 16-24) has risen by 23,000 since last month’s figures, to 482,000.

Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants (aged 18-24) last month has risen by 5,700, to 270,700.

chart 3
Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training

The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training (983,000) fell by 18,000 in the last quarter. 66% of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.

chart 4
Chart 5: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 16-24)

Total youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) is unknown this month because of sample size issues for 16-17 year olds unemployed for over 12 months, but it is at least 120,000. Long-term unemployment for young people is normally counted as being unemployed for six months or more.

chart 5
Chart 6: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+)

Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 250,000. The number people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months has risen by 12,000 compared with before the pandemic (Dec 19 - Feb 20).

chart 6
Chart 7: Unemployment rates by age

The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.5% of the economically active. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.8%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.9%. The quarterly change is 0.49 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, -0.05 percentage points for 25 to 49 year olds, and 0.49 percentage points for the over-50s.

chart 7

Chart 8: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100)


The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is unchanged compared to February 2020. The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points for those aged 25 to 34 and decreased by 0.2 percentage points for those aged 35 to 49. The unemployment rate also increased by 0.1 percentage points for those aged 50 to 64 and decreased by 0.4 percentage points for those aged over 65.

chart 8
Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey

Headline vacancies this month fell by 31,000 to 1,083,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures was stable in the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average.

chart 9
Chart 10: UK employment

Employment has risen by 45,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,995,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.

Chart 10
Chart 11: Employment rate in the UK

The employment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.9%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.

Chart 11
Chart 12: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled

The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled rose by 1.2% in the last 6 months to more than 2,550,000 working age people.

Chart 12
Chart 13: Economic inactivity – people looking after family

The survey figures show the numbers looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work have been rising steadily since early 2021. There are now 1,660,000 people looking after family and not working, compared to a low point of 1,590,000. However, the numbers have fallen slightly in recent months.

Chart 13
Chart 14: Economic inactivity – other inactive

In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in this group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, but has since declined. A relatively high proportion of this group want to work. There are now 1,033,000 people who are classified as economically inactive - other, 30% of whom want to work. This is compared to a high point of 1,290,000.

Chart 14
Chart 15: Employment rate three-year change in regions – January to March 2023

This quarter, compared to 2020, 5 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, the largest increase being in Yorkshire & the Humber. The employment rate fell in 7 regions, the greatest fall being in Wales. Chart 15
Chart 16: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – January to March 2023

This quarter, compared to 2020, 7 regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, the largest increase being in the East Midlands. The inactivity rate fell in 4 regions, the greatest falls being in Yorkshire & the Humber and Eastern England. There was no change in Scotland. Chart 16

View this email in your browser. This newsletter is produced by Learning and Work Institute and keeps readers up to date on a wide range of learning and work issues.

If you have any questions, contact Chris
© 2023 Learning and Work Institute. All rights reserved. To subscribe click here. To unsubscribe click here.


Email Marketing by ActiveCampaign