Labour Market Analysis


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 11 July 2023 Unemployment is 1,370,000, up by 65,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline is up by 77,000) and the unemployment rate 4%, has risen by 0.2 percentage points on last month and by 0.2 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,552,300, up by 25,700 on last month. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 987,000, down by 27,000 on the quarter, representing 14.4% of the youth population. Youth unemployment (including students) is 482,000, up by 23,000 on the quarter. Vacancies in the ONS official series decreased for the 13th consecutive month to 1,034,000 in Apr-Jun 2023, down from a high point of 1,302,000 in Mar-May 2022. There are now 1.3 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 76.0% (up by 0.0 percentage points on last month’s published figure and up by 0.2 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Stephen Evans, Chief Executive at the Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘The cost of living crisis continues to hit those on lower incomes hardest. Average regular wages grew by 7.3%, but those in higher paid sectors saw the biggest increases. Wages grew by 9% for those working in finance and business services, compared to 5% for people working in retail and hospitality. There was a further welcome rise in employment and fall in economic inactivity. But there are still 245,000 people fewer in work than if the employment rate had stayed at pre-pandemic levels. Only one in ten out-of-work disabled and older people gets help to find work each year. We need a strategy to increase employment, grow our economy and raise incomes for those with the lowest incomes.’ Helen Gray, Chief Economist at the Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘The gap between inflation and pay rises is finally starting to close, with average regular pay dropping by 0.8% in real terms in May 2023, when nominal pay increased by 7.3%. Strike action is also starting to abate and May saw the lowest number of working days lost to industrial action since July 2022. Inflationary pressures from the relatively low number of unemployed people per vacancy remain however. This hit a record low this century in the Jun-Aug 2022 quarter and although on the increase now, is likely to continue to exert upward pressure on wages while those who left the labour market during the pandemic remain economically inactive.’ Labour Market Briefing Employment is up by 102,000 between December 2022 to February 2023 and March to May 2023. In the last 12 months employment is up by 190,000. Unemployment increased by 77,000 between December 2022 to February 2023 and March to May 2023. Over this period, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4% in the most recent quarter. Economic inactivity has fallen by 141,000 between December 2022 to February 2023 and March to May 2023. The inactivity rate reduced by 0.4 percentage points to 20.8% in the quarter. The national claimant count increased by 25,700 to 1,552,300 Youth unemployment rose by 23,000. There are 482,000 unemployed young people, and 325,000 (4.7% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment is up by 142,000 this year. The number of employees has risen by 54,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment reduced by 45,000 this quarter to 0.7 million, 8.8% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.0%.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 182,000 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people (aged 16-24) rose by 17,000 since last month’s figures, to 482,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants (aged 18-24) last month increased by 2,000, to 270,100.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training (987,000) reduced by 27,000 in the last quarter, or 2.7%. 67% of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.
	Chart 5: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 235,000. The number of people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months or more is down by 2,800 compared to before the pandemic (Dec 19 - Feb 20).
	Chart 6: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.7% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 3.1%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.7%. The quarterly change is 0.72 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, 0.29 percentage points for 25 to 49 year olds, and -0.06 percentage points for the over-50s. Chart 7: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100) The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 0.3 percentage points higher than in February 2020. The unemployment rate for those aged 25 to 34 increased by 0.7 percentage points, while there was no change for those aged 35 to 49. For those aged 50 to 64, the unemployment rate dereased by 0.1 percentage points and for those aged over 65 it decreased by 0.8 percentage points.
	Chart 8: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month are down by 23,000 to 1,034,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures is down by 52,000 in the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 9: UK employment Employment is down by 37,000 on the figure published last month, to 33,053,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 10: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 76.0%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 11: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled has risen by 3.6% in the last 6 months to more than 2,525,000 working age people.
	Chart 12: Economic inactivity – people looking after family The survey figures show the number of people looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work have been trending downwards in recent months after rising steadily between early 2021 and early 2022. There are now 1,620,000 people looking after family and not working, compared to a low point of 1,590,000.
	Chart 13: Economic inactivity – other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in this group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, but has since declined. A relatively high proportion of this group want to work. There are now 1,020,000 people who are classified as economically inactive - other, 31% of whom want to work. This is compared to a high point of 1,290,000.
	Chart 14: Employment rate three-year change in regions – March to May 2023 This quarter, compared to 2020, 5 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, the largest increase being in Yorkshire & the Humber. The employment rate fell in 6 regions, the greatest fall being in Wales. There was no change in the employment rate in the South East.
	Chart 15: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – March to May 2023 This quarter, compared to 2020, 6 regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, the largest increase being in the East Midlands. The inactivity rate fell in 6 regions, the greatest fall being in Yorkshire & the Humber
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