Labour Market Analysis


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 13 June 2023 Unemployment is 1,305,000, down by 25,000 from last month’s published figure and the unemployment rate, 3.8%, is down by 0.1 percentage points on last month and up by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,535,500, has fallen by 13,600 on last month. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 1,003,000, is up by 18,000 on the quarter, representing 14.6% of the youth population (increased by 0.2 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 465,000, up by 6,000 on the quarter. Vacancies in Mar-May 2023 (in the ONS official series) fell again to 1,051,000. There are now 1.2 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 76.0% (up by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s published figure and up by 0.2 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Stephen Evans, Chief Executive at the Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘The labour market remains resilient with employment up and economic inactivity down in the year to April. Average earnings rose by 6.5%, the highest outside the pandemic. Taken together these figures are likely to strengthen the hand of those arguing for further interest rate rises from the Bank of England. However, structural weaknesses remain, with inflation continuing to outstrip earnings making it tough for many to make ends meet. The employment rate is still below pre-pandemic levels, with a record 2.5 million people economically inactive due to long-term sickness. We need to tackle these structural challenges, helping more people to look for work to allow higher growth. ’ Helen Gray, Chief Economist at the Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘The numbers of people economically inactive due to long-term sickness continued to rise in the quarter to Apr 2023 and at 2.55 million, stands at the highest level seen since records began in 1993. It will only be possible to reduce economic inactivity to pre-Pandemic levels through targeted action which addresses the reasons why people have dropped out of the labour market. In the context of wages which continue to fall in real terms, it is unsurprising that levels of industrial action remain high, with over 1.1 million working days lost to strike action in the quarter to April 2023. The number of working days lost in the most recent wave of industrial action has exceeded all disputes since the first quarter of 1990 when 1.2 million working days were lost due to strikes.’ Labour Market Briefing Employment increased by 250,000 between November 2022 to January 2023 and February to April 2023. In the last 12 months employment has risen by 382,000. Unemployment is up by 52,000 between November 2022 to January 2023 and February to April 2023. Over this period, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in the most recent quarter. Economic inactivity reduced by 140,000 between November 2022 to January 2023 and February to April 2023. The inactivity rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 21% in the quarter. The national claimant count has fallen by 13,600 to 1,535,500 Youth unemployment has risen by 6,000. There are 465,000 unemployed young people, and 321,000 (4.7% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment has risen by 235,000 this year. The number of employees rose by 150,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment is up by 15,000 this quarter to 0.8 million, 9.8% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate is down by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 231,000 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people (aged 16-24) has fallen by 18,000 since last month’s figures, to 465,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants (aged 18-24) last month rose by 400, to 268,800.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training (1,003,000) is up by 18,000 in the last quarter, or 1.8%. 68% of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed.
	Chart 5: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 237,000. The number people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months or more is down by 1,300 compared to before the pandemic (Dec 19 - Feb 20).
	Chart 6: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.4% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.9%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.6%. The quarterly change is 0.9 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, 0.19 percentage points for 25 to 49 year olds, and 0.03 points for the over-50s.
	Chart 7: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100) The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 0.1 percentage points lower than in February 2020. The unemployment rate increased by 0.4 points for those aged 25 to 34 and decreased by 0.2 points for those aged 35 to 49. The unemployment rate also decreased by 0.2 percentage points for those aged 50 to 64 while it decreased by 0.6 points for those aged over 65. Chart 8: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month are down by 35,000 to 1,051,000.
	Chart 9: UK employment Employment rose by 94,000 on the figure published last month, to 33,089,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 10: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate is up by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 76.0%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 11: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled rose by 4.0% in the last 6 months to more than 2,554,000 working age people.
	Chart 12: Economic inactivity – people looking after family The survey figures showing those looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work had been trending downwards but have been rising steadily since early 2021. There are now 1,640,000 people looking after family and not working, compared to a low point of 1,590,000.
	Chart 13: Economic inactivity – other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in this group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, but has since declined. A very high proportion of this group want to work. There are now 1,030,000 people who are classified as economically inactive - other, 30% of whom want to work. This is compared to a high point of 1,290,000.
	Chart 14: Employment rate three-year change in regions – February to April 2023 This quarter, compared to 2020, 6 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, the largest increase being in Northern Ireland. The employment rate fell in 6 regions, the greatest fall being in Wales.
	Chart 15: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – February to April 2023 This quarter, compared to 2020, 7 regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, the largest increase being in the East Midlands. The inactivity rate fell in 4 regions, the greatest fall being in the West Midlands
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