Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 14 May 2019
Learning and Work Institute comment |
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Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment figure is 1,298,000. It has has fallen by 45,000 from the figure published last month. The unemployment rate was down by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%. |
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Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 20% (260,000). This follows from the strong rise in the claimant count with the full roll-out of Universal Credit, while ILO unemployment has fallen. |
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Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 11,000 from last month’s figure and is now 118,000. The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC where data remains unavailable) remains far behind, at 15,100. The count fell by 700 this month. |
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Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 276,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 139,300. |
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Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 9.9% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.9%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.7%. The quarterly change is down 0.5 percentage points (pp) for 18 to 24 year olds, down 0.1 pp for 25 to 49 year olds, and no change for the over-50s. |
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Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (933,000) has fallen in the past quarter by 18,000 , or 1.9%, but risen in the month. The quarterly fall was largely among the unemployed, with the number of economically inactive young people not in full-time education or training falling at a lower rate. 65% of the number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education were counted as economically inactive. |
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Chart 7: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has fallen by 26,000 since last month’s figures, to 467,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants fell last month by 5,700, to 206,700. There are 133,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance, 40.4% of all unemployed young people who are not students. |
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Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count is up by 24,681 in April, taking the total to 1,085,169. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment is up by 23,447 to 1,116,579. This change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today. Learning & Work's seasonally adjusted estimate rose by 14,400 to 1,066,100. |
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Chart 9: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimants staying through each three-month threshold (seasonally adjusted) These measures are affected by the end of new claims for income-based JSA with the completion of Universal Credit roll-out at the end of 2018. Off-flow rates have increased for all claimants other than the shortest term, though whether they have simply been counted as new Universal Credit claimants is not completely clear. The quarterly off-flow rate for new JSA claimants (all for new-style contribution-related JSA) is around the level reached in the peak of the recession in 2009, and, perhaps a more relevant comparison, similar to that usual before the introduction of JSA in 1996, when there were major changes to intensify the work-search regime. |
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Chart 10: Jobseeker’s Allowance – proportion of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed The proportion of starters becoming 12-month claimants is now 13.1%. This is likely to fall over the next few months as the proportion of starters becoming 9-month claimants has fallen by 1.0 percentage points over the last three months. These figures are based on those in Chart 9, but show the patterns of the same people passing through successive quarterly thresholds. |
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Chart 11: Vacancies – whole economy survey Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) fell slightly this month, to 846,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average. |
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Chart 12: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.5 unemployed people per vacancy. |
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Chart 13: UK employment Employment fell by 24,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,697,000. The quarterly change is still up, however. |
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Chart 14: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate has risen by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 76.1%. The reduction visible in the chart is within rounding to 76.1% (from 76.13% to 76.06%). |
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Chart 15: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness is largely stable, while the benefit figure fell. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. Universal Credit statistics for claimants by conditionality regime do not permit separation of those claiming on health grounds from people with care responsibilities (such as lone parents). |
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Chart 16: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents The survey figures (showing those looking after family) rose while benefit measures fell sharply. The sharp fall is likely to be due to lone parents claiming Universal Credit, where the regular statistics do not provide information permitting counting the numbers of workless lone parents receiving benefits. This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families). |
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Chart 17: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – January to March 2019 This quarter, 7 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by the East Midlands and Northern Ireland. The employment rate fell in 5 regions, led by Wales and the North East. |
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Chart 18: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – January to March 2019 8 regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. 4 showed a worsening. The rises were led by Wales and the South East. |
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Chart 19: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – January to March 2019 Overall, there was a 0.1 percentage point fall in the inactivity rate. 6 regions showed rises in inactivity, led by the North East and the South West. |
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