Labour Market Analysis | 14 June 2022


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 14 June 2022 Unemployment is 1,300,000, increased by 41,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline fell by 47,000). The unemployment rate, 3.8%, increased by 0.1 percentage points on last month and is down by 0.2 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed, 1,584,200, is down by 19,700 on last month, and the claimant rate is 4%. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 881,000, showing little change at 0 on the quarter, representing 12.9% of the youth population (reduced by 0.3 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 350,000, reduced by 7,000 on the quarter. Vacancies in March-May 2022 (in the ONS official series) are 1,300,000 after recovering strongly from the low point of 343,000 in April to June 2020. There are now 1.0 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 76.0% (unchanged on last month’s published figure and rose by 0.2 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Learning and Work Institute comment The labour market figures published on 14 June show unemployment rose on last month, and employment is still 366,000 lower than pre-pandemic due to people leaving the labour market. There are fewer potential workers for employers to recruit, with 593,000 over 50s leaving the labour market since the pandemic started. Stephen Evans, Chief Executive of Learning and Work Institute, commented: ‘‘The cost of living crisis is hitting hard with real regular wages falling more sharply this month than in any month this century. We face a year of pain. The Chancellor has increased the help on offer and needs to prepare to do more. We also need an urgent focus on getting our economy moving again so living standards can rise. The headlines suggest a tight labour market, with employment rising and unemployment and economic inactivity falling. But this fall in economic inactivity was driven by lower numbers of students, while the number of older people and those who are long-term sick out of work remains high. With employment still 366,000 lower than before the pandemic, it is this worker shortage that is driving a recruitment crisis. The Government and employers need to urgently address this.’’ Paul Bivand, Associate Director, Statistics and Analysis at Learning and Work Institute added: ‘‘This month, the ONS has revised figures all the way back to the start of the pandemic. This increases the total population, but does not change rates much, except for Northern Ireland. The estimates for October to December are 76,000 higher employment due to reweighting, 52,000 higher inactivity and 7,000 higher unemployment. For Northern Ireland the reweighting reduces the employment number and increases inactivity from an already high level. Our analysis uses the reweighted data back to before the pandemic. The rise in unemployment was something of a surprise, and appears stronger in the experimental monthly figures. Long-term unemployment has continued to fall, so the rise is in short-term unemployment. We will need data on employment flows (next month) to see if this rise is from moves from jobs, from inactivity or falling outflows from unemployment.’’ Employment has risen by 177,000 between November 2021 to January 2022 and February to April 2022. In the last 12 months employment is up by 533,000. Unemployment has fallen by 47,000 between November 2021 to January 2022 and February to April 2022. The unemployment rate is down by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8% in the quarter, the highest level since 2015. Economic inactivity decreased by 39,000 between November 2021 to January 2022 and February to April 2022. The inactivity rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 21.3% in the quarter. The national claimant count has fallen by 19,700. Youth unemployment was down by 7,000. There are 455,000 unemployed young people, and 287,000 (4.2% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment fell by 66,000 this year. The number of employees has risen by 532,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment reduced by 55,000 this quarter to 0.9 million, 10.7% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 284,600 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people rose by 17,000 since last month’s figures, to 455,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants fell by last month by 4,700, to 248,600.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (881,000) has fallen by 17,000 in the last quarter, or 1.9%. Two-thirds (68%) of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.
	Chart 5: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 43,000 over the last quarter and is now 108,000. Long-term unemployment for young people is normally counted as being unemployed for six months or more. Youth long-term unemployment is now the lowest on record.
	Chart 6: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 284,000. There are 51,000 more people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months or more than before the pandemic (Dec 19-Feb 20), though this is now falling (either due to people finding work or moving into economic inactivity).
	Chart 7: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 9.4% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.9%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.7%. The quarterly change is down 0.4 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, down 0.2 points for 25 to 49 year olds, and down 0.1 points for the over-50s.
	Chart 8: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100) The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is down 1.1 percentage points compared to February 2020. The change is up 0.3 points for those aged 25 to 34. There is no change those aged 35 to 49. The change is down 0.1 points for those aged 50 to 64. The change is down 0.6 points for those aged over 65. Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month increased by 4,000 to 1,300,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures increased by 42,000 In the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 10: Experimental single month vacancies – whole economy survey The Office for National Statistics experimental single month vacancy estimates include sectoral information. As these are not seasonally adjusted, it is better to look at annual changes. The numbers are thousands of vacancies, under each number, and on the right, the annual change in thousands of vacancies.
	Chart 11: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.0 unemployed people per vacancy. The number of vacancies is approximately equivalent to the number of ILO unemployed (defined as both seeking work and available to start).
	Chart 12: Online vacancies to early June from Indeed The online vacancies figures cover the period up to Friday, June 3, 2022. New online vacancies recorded by Indeed are 56% up on Feb 2020. Overall vaancies available are up by 53% over the same period.
	Chart 13: UK employment Employment has risen by 75,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,707,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures. The trend is likely to be upwards.
	Chart 14: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.6%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures. The trend is likely to be upwards.
	Chart 15: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled has risen 6.4% in the last year months to 2.34 million working age people.
	Chart 16: Economic inactivity – people looking after family The survey figures showing those looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work has risen 7.8% over the last year to 1.7 million, reversing the previous falling trend.
	Chart 17: Economic inactivity – other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in this group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, and has continued at a high level. A very high proportion of this group want to work, and this increased over the period of the pandemic.
	Chart 18: Employment rate three-year change in regions – February to April 2022 This quarter, two regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by the West Midlands region. The employment rate fell in nine regions, the greatest fall being in Wales.
	Chart 19: Unemployment rate three-year change in regions – February to April 2022 This quarter, four regions showed a rise in the unemployment rate, led by the Eastern region. The unemployment rate fell in six regions, the greatest fall being in the East Midlands.
	Chart 20: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – February to April 2022 This quarter, nine regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, led by Wales. The inactivity rate fell in three regions, the greatest fall being in West Midlands
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