Labour Market Analysis


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 18 April 2023 Unemployment is 1,293,000, up by 40,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline has risen by 49,000) and the unemployment rate 3.8%, is up by 0.1 percentage points on last month and rose by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,527,400, up by 28,200 on last month. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 1,014,000, up by 81,000 on the quarter, representing 14.8% of the youth population (up by 1.2 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 459,000, down by 2,000 on the quarter. Vacancies decreased again in Jan-Mar 2023 (in the ONS official series) to 1,105,000 for the tenth month in a row. There are more unemployed people than current job vacancies, with 1.2 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 75.8% (up by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s published figure and up by 0.2 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Helen Gray, Chief Economist at the Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘Real regular pay excluding bonuses fell by 2.3% in the year to February 2023. In nominal terms, regular pay growth in the private sector continues to outpace that seen in the public sector, although the gap has been closing in recent months. Upward pressure on pay continues to be felt due to increases in the cost-of-living, industrial disputes and the fact that 422,000 more people of working age are economically inactive compared with before the Pandemic. In February 348,000 working days were lost to industrial action. Whilst this represents a fall compared with the most recent peak of 826,000 days in December 2022, ongoing disputes in some sectors, including health and teaching, have the potential to undermine the prospects for economic growth over the coming months. ’ Labour Market Briefing Employment increased by 169,000 between September to November 2022 and December 2022 to February 2023. In the last 12 months employment is up by 384,000. Unemployment has risen by 49,000 between September to November 2022 and December 2022 to February 2023. Over this period, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in the most recent quarter. Economic inactivity reduced by 153,000 between September to November 2022 and December 2022 to February 2023. The inactivity rate has fallen by 0.4 percentage points to 21.1% in the quarter. The national claimant count has risen by 28,200 to 1,527,400. Youth unemployment decreased by 2,000. There are 459,000 unemployed young people, and 323,000 (4.7% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment is up by 142,000 this year. The number of employees is up by 222,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment reduced by 4,000 this quarter to 0.8 million, 9.4% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 234,000 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people (aged 16-24) rose by 1,000 since last month’s figures, to 459,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants (aged 18-24) last month increased by 1,700, to 265,000.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training (1,014,000) is up by 81,000 in the last quarter, or 8.7%. 68% of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.
	Chart 5: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 16-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) is now 101,000. Long-term unemployment for young people is normally counted as being unemployed for six months or more.
	Chart 6: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 241,000. The number of people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months or more increased by 3,100 compared to before the pandemic (December 2019 - February 2020).
	Chart 7: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10% of the economically active. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.8%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.8%. The quarterly change is 0.26 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, 0.07 percentage points for 25 to 49 year olds, and 0.3 points for the over-50s. Chart 8: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100) The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 0.5 percentage points lower than in February 2020. The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points for those aged 25 to 34, and it decreased by 0.1 percentage points for those aged 35 to 49 and those aged 50-64. The unemployment rate also decreased for those aged 65 or more by 0.4 percentage points.
	Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month has fallen by 17,000 to 1,105,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures is up by 23,000 in the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 10: UK employment Employment increased by 111,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,950,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 11: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.8%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 12: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled is up by 1.5% in the last 6 months to 2,527,000 working age people.
	Chart 13: Economic inactivity – people looking after family The survey figures show the numbers looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work have been rising steadily since early 2021. There are now 1,670,000 people looking after family and not working, compared to a low point of 1,590,000. However, the numbers have fallen slightly in recent months.
	Chart 14: Economic inactivity – other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in this group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, but has since declined. A relatively high proportion of this group want to work. There are now 1,090,000 people who are classified as economically inactive - other, 30% of which want to work. This is compared to a high point of 1,290,000 in the April-June 2020 quarter.
	Chart 15: Employment rate three-year change in regions – December to February 2023 This quarter, compared to 2019 five regions showed a rise in the employment rate, the largest increase being in Yorkshire & the Humber. The employment rate was lower in seven regions, the greatest fall being in the East Midlands.
	Chart 16: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – December to February 2023 This quarter, compared to 2019 ten regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, the largest increase being in the East Midlands. The inactivity rate fell in two regions, the greatest reduction being in Eastern England.
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