Labour Market LIVE update


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 14 March 2023 Unemployment is 1,253,000, down by 17,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline has risen by 5,000) and the unemployment rate, 3.7%, showed no change compared to the last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,497,900, down by 11,200 on last month. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 985,000, up by 63,000 on the quarter, representing 14.4% of the youth population (up by 0.9 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 458,000, up by 27,000 on the quarter. Vacancies in Dec 2022 - Feb 2023 (in the ONS official series) stood at 1,124,000 after recovering strongly from the low point of 329,000 in April to June 2020. There are now 1.1 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 75.7% (up by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s published figure and up by 0.1 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Stephen Evans, Chief Executive at the Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘There are one million fewer people in the UK workforce than if pre-pandemic trends had continued. While economic inactivity fell ahead of the Government's 'back to work' Budget, this was driven largely by fewer young people studying. Only one in ten out-of-work 50-64-year-olds and disabled people get help to find work each year. That's got to change if we're to tackle the UK's shrinking workforce. Real earnings fell at their sharpest rates since the global financial crisis, driven by high inflation. This 10-month fall in real wages is the backdrop to tomorrow's Budget, the Chancellor must act further to help people through the pain. Slowing nominal wage growth in the private sector suggests that wage pressures may not be embedded in the economy, giving room for action ’ Helen Gray, Chief Economist at the Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘Today's Labour Market figures show that economic inactivity has continued to fall from the post-Pandemic peak of 9 million, yet remains far higher than pre-pandemic levels. The proposed changes to support with childcare costs for those on Universal Credit expected in tomorrow's Budget are to be welcomed, but this needs to be accompanied by greater support for the long-term sick and those not claiming benefits if a significant proportion of the 1.8 million people who are economically inactive but want a job are likely to enter employment. Growth in nominal regular pay in the public sector has been catching up with that seen in the private sector in recent months. Related to this, there was a considerable drop in the number of working days lost to industrial action at the start of this year, from 822,000 days lost in December 2022 to 220,000 in January 2023. As a number of unions have now called-off planned strikes, it seems likely that December's figure will represent a high-water mark in recent times. ’ Labour Market Briefing Employment increased by 65,000 between the August to October 2022 and November 2022 to January 2023 quarters. In the last 12 months employment increased by 309,000. Unemployment has risen by 5,000 between August to October 2022 and November 2022 to January 2023. Over this period, the unemployment rate showed no change at 3.7% in the most recent quarter. Economic inactivity reduced by 77,000 between August to October 2022 and November 2022 to January 2023. The inactivity rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 21.3% in the quarter. The national claimant count decreased by 11,200 to 1,497,900 Youth unemployment increased by 27,000. There are 458,000 unemployed young people, and 301,000 (4.4% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment has risen by 146,000 this year. The number of employees increased by 137,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment increased by 19,000 this quarter to 0.8 million, 9.7% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate is 3.7%, for all aged 16 and over, showing no change over the quarter. It is estimated that There are currently 1,253,000 unemployed people.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 245,000 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people (aged 16-24) fell by 13,000 since last month’s figures, to 458,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants (aged 18-24) last month has fallen by 1,800, to 262,500.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training (985,000) rose by 63,000 in the last quarter, or 6.8%. 69% of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.
	Chart 5: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 16-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) is down by 7,000 over the last quarter and is now 96,000. Long-term unemployment for young people is normally counted as being unemployed for six months or more. Note that the break in the series is due to the estimate of the number of 16-17 year olds unemployed for over 12 months in September - November 2022 being censored due to sample size limitations.
	Chart 6: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 233,000. The number of people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months is 4,600 lower than before the pandemic (Dec 19 - Feb 20).
	Chart 7: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 9.5% of the economically active. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.7%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.6%. The quarterly change is 0.12 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, -0.1 percentage points for 25 to 49 year olds, and no change for the over-50s.
	Chart 8: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100) The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 1.0 percentage points lower than in February 2020. There was no change for those aged 25 to 34. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 points for those aged 35 to 49 and those aged 50 to 64, and it decreased by 0.6 points for those aged over 65. Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month have fallen by 9,000 to 1,124,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures have fallen by 25,000 in the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 10: UK employment Employment rose by 25,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,839,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 11: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate is up by 0.1 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.7%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 12: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled rose by 2.2% in the last 6 months to more than 2,520,000 working age people.
	Chart 13: Economic inactivity – people looking after family The survey figures show those looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work had been trending downwards but have been rising fairly steadily since early 2021. There are now 1,698,000 people looking after family and not working, compared to a low point of 1,599,000.
	Chart 14: Economic inactivity – other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in the 'other inactive' group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time to 1,293,000, but has since declined. A relatively high proportion of this group want to work. There are now 1,124,000 people who are classified as economically inactive - other, 30% of which want to work.
	Chart 15: Employment rate three-year change in regions – November 2022 to January 2023 This quarter, compared to 2019 3 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, the largest increase being in Yorkshire & the Humber. The employment rate fell in 8 regions, the greatest fall being in the East Midlands. There was no recorded change in the employment rate for the South West.
	Chart 16: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – November 2022 to January 2023 This quarter, compared to 2019 9 regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, the largest increase being in the East Midlands. The inactivity rate fell in 3 regions, the greatest fall being in Scotland This newsletter is produced by Learning and Work Institute and keeps readers up to date on a wide range of learning and work issues. If you have any questions, contact Chris. © 2022 Learning and Work Institute. All rights reserved. To subscribe click here. View this email in your browser \| Click here to unsubscribe