Labour Market Analysis | January 2023


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 17 January 2023 Unemployment is 1,244,000, down by 3,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline is up by 56,000) and the unemployment rate 3.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,562,300, up by 19,700 on last month. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 933,000, up by 113,000 on the quarter, representing 13.6% of the youth population (up by 1.6 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 461,000, up by 89,000 on the quarter. Vacancies in Oct-Dec 2022 (in the ONS official series) have declined from their 2022 peak of 1.3 million to 1,161,000. The employment rate is 75.6%, almost unchanged from the previous quarter. Helen Gray, Chief Economist at Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘Although there have been recent signs that cost-of-living pressures have reached their peak, pay fell by an average of 2.6 per cent in real terms in the most recent quarter, one of the largest reductions in pay growth since comparable records began in 2001. Public sector workers continue to be hardest hit, with nominal total pay 3.9 percentage points lower in the public sector compared with the private sector in the quarter to November 2022. The number of days lost to industrial action continues to rise, reaching nearly half-a-million days in November. Whilst this has not yet exceeded the levels seen in Nov 2011, at the height of disputes about public sector pension reforms, the figures do not currently include the wave of strikes seen across the public sector in December and January. In the context of ongoing cuts to the standard of living, industrial unrest is likely to continue for some time to come. More welcome news is the small drop in the rate of economic inactivity, continuing the downward trend seen in last month's figures. In the quarter to November this change was largely due to increased participation in the labour market by 18-24 and 50-64 year olds. However, the rate of economic inactivity remains 1.3 percentage points higher than before the pandemic. More must be done to return employment levels to those seen in February 2020 if there is to be any hope of employers filling nearly 1.2 million vacancies.’ Labour Market Briefing Employment rose by 27,000 between the June to August 2022 and September to November 2022 quarters. In the last 12 months employment increased by 219,000. Unemployment has risen by 56,000 between June to August 2022 and September to November 2022. Over this period, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in the most recent quarter. Economic inactivity fell by 55,000 between June to August 2022 and September to November 2022. The inactivity rate is down by 0.1 percentage points to 21.5% in the quarter. The national claimant count has risen by 19,700 to 1,562,300. Youth unemployment has risen by 89,000. There are 461,000 unemployed young people, and 303,000 (4.4% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment is up by 30,000 this year. The number of employees is up by 181,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment decreased by 17,000 this quarter to 0.8 million, 9.7% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate is 3.7%. After peaking at 5.2% at the end of 2020, unemployment has begun to stabilise around this level.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 318,000 higher than the number of unemployed (1.2 million) in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people (aged 16-24) is up by 30,000 since last month’s figures, to 461,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants (aged 18-24) last month is up by 4,800, to 269,500.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training (933,000) increased by 113,000 in the last quarter, or 13.8%. 68% of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.
	Chart 5: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 16-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) is now 111,000. Long-term unemployment for young people is normally counted as being unemployed for six months or more.
	Chart 6: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 218,000. The number people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months or more is down by 20,000 compared to before the pandemic (Dec 19 - Feb 20).
	Chart 7: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 9.8%. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.7%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.5%. The quarterly change is 2.23 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, -0.16 percentage points for 25 to 49 year olds, and -0.02 points for the over-50s.
	Chart 8: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month have fallen by 25,000 to 1,161,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures reduced by 189,000 in the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 9: Experimental single month vacancies – whole economy survey The Office for National Statistics experimental job advert indices covering the UK job market show that compared to 2018, online vacancies have increased in 9 sectors, with the largest increase being in Wholesale and retail. Online vacancies have decreased in 2 sectors, with the largest decrease being in Manufacturing.
	Chart 10: Vacancies by region The Office for National Statistics experimental job advert indices covering the UK job market show that compared to 2018, online vacancies have increased in 6 regions, with the largest increase being in Scotland. Online vacancies have decreased in 7 regions, with the largest decrease being in the East of England.
	Chart 11: UK employment Employment is up by 7,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,781,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 12: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate is almost unchanged compared to the last quarter, at 75.6%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 13: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled increased by 5.0% in the last 6 months to approximately 2,438,000 working age people.
	Chart 14: Economic inactivity – people looking after family The survey figures showing those looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work had been trending downwards but have been rising steadily since early 2021. There are now 1,725,000 people looking after family and not working, compared to a low point of 1,590,000.
	Chart 15: Economic inactivity – other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in this group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, but has since declined. A high proportion of this group want to work. There are now 1,060,000 people who are classified as economically inactive - other, 31% of which want to work. This is compared to a high point of 1,290,000.
	Chart 16: Employment rate three-year change in regions – September to November 2022 This quarter, compared to 2019, 3 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, the largest increase being in Scotland. The employment rate fell in 9 regions, the greatest fall being in Wales.
	Chart 17: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – September to November 2022 This quarter, compared to 2019 10 regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, the largest increase being in the East Midlands. The inactivity rate fell in 2 regions, the greatest fall being in Scotland
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