Labour Market Analysis | December 2022


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 13 December 2022 Unemployment is 1,247,000, up by 23,000 on last month?s published figure, and the unemployment rate is 3.7%, is up by 0.1 percentage points on last month's figure and up by 0.1 percentage points on the quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,556,900, up by 30,500 on last month, and the claimant rate is 3.9%. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 922,000, is up by 88,000 on the quarter, representing 13.5% of the youth population (increased by 1.3 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 431,000, increased by 59,000 on the quarter. Vacancies in Sep-Nov 2022 decreased by 65,000 on the quarter to 1,187,000 (in the ONS official series). There are approximately 1.0 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 75.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points on last month?s published figure and up by 0.2 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure. Stephen Evans, Chief Executive at Learning and Work Institute, said: 'Today's data show almost one million working days lost to strikes in the three months to October, the highest in a decade. While not at 'winter of discontent' levels, strike days are likely to increase further with high inflation meaning a whole year of falling real wages, leaving them no higher than before the financial crisis. Pay growth of 2.9% in the public sector was far below 6.8% in the private sector. If the Government wants to improve public services, it will surely need to increase pay with inflation running at almost 10% and high vacancies running in some services. There was a slight fall in the number of people outside the labour market, but economic inactivity remains higher than pre-pandemic. As a result, employment is still 300,000 below pre-pandemic levels with the UK having the slowest employment recovery from the pandemic in the G7. The Government can unlock a ?23 billion economic boost by using some of the ?2 billion underspend on its Plan for Jobs to widen access to find work to more over 50s and disabled people. ? Dr Helen Gray, Chief Economist at Learning and Work Institute, said: 'The latest figures from ONS reflect the recent rise in industrial action, with the highest number of working days lost due to labour disputes since November 2011. This is unsurprising in the context of pay falling by an average of 2.7 per cent when adjusted for inflation - one of the largest reductions seen over the past two decades. Although nominal pay has risen in both the public and private sectors in recent months, private sector pay increases continue to outstrip those in the public sector. This makes it all the more likely that industrial action in the public sector in particular will continue into 2023. On a more positive note, the small reduction in the rate of economic inactivity is to be welcomed, especially as the drop is most pronounced amongst those aged 50-64 (the age group most likely to become economically inactive during the pandemic). However, there are still 565,000 more people who are economically inactive than before the pandemic and all industries continue to have a higher number of vacancies than in early 2020, despite recent reductions. There is still is a long way to go to reverse the rise in economic inactivity and fall in employment seen during the pandemic.? Labour Market Briefing Employment increased by 27,000 between May to July 2022 and August to October 2022. In the last 12 months employment increased by 191,000. Unemployment rose by 23,000 between May to July 2022 and August to October 2022. Over this period, the unemployment rate is has risen by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% in the most recent quarter. Economic inactivity decreased by 76,000 between May to July 2022 and August to October 2022. The inactivity rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 21.5% in the quarter. The national claimant count has risen by 30,500 to 1,556,900 Youth unemployment rose by 59,000. There are 431,000 unemployed young people, and 284,000 (4.2% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment fell by 43,000 this year. The number of employees increased by 253,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment decreased by 29,000 this quarter to 0.8 million, 9.7% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate has risen by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7%.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 310,000 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people (aged 16-24) is up by 32,000 since last month?s figures, to 431,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker?s Allowance claimants (aged 18-24) last month is up by 6,300, to 267,000.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training (922,000) is up by 88,000 in the last quarter, or 10.6%. 69% of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.
	Chart 5: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 16-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) reduced by 8,000 over the last quarter and is now 104,000. Long-term unemployment for young people is normally counted as being unemployed for six months or more.
	Chart 6: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 226,000. The number people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months or more is reduced by 12,000 compared to before the pandemic (Dec 19 - Feb 20).
	Chart 7: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 9.4% of the economically active ? excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.8%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.6%. The quarterly change in the unemployment rate is 1.77 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, -0.24 percentage points for 25 to 49 year olds, and 0.08 points for the over-50s.
	Chart 8: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100) The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is -1.1 percentage points higher than in February 2020. The change is 0.3 points for those aged 25 to 34. The change is -0.2 points for those aged 35 to 49. The change is -0.3 points for those aged 50 to 64. The change is -0.1 points for those aged over 65.
	Chart 9: Vacancies ? whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month decreased by 30,000 to 1,187,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures decreased by 133,000 in the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The Chart shows both series.
	Chart 10: Experimental single month vacancies ? whole economy survey The Office for National Statistics experimental job advert indices covering the UK job market show that compared to 2018, online vacancies have increased in 8 sectors, with the largest increase being in Wholesale and retail. Online vacancies have decreased in 3 sectors, with the largest decrease being in Manufacturing.
	Chart 11: Vacancies by region The Office for National Statistics experimental job advert indices covering the UK job market show that compared to 2018, online vacancies have increased in 6 regions, with the largest increase being in Scotland. Online vacancies have decreased in 7 regions, with the largest decrease being in the East of England.
	Chart 12: UK employment Employment increased by 27,000 in August to October 2022 compared to the previous quarter. The Chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 13: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate has risen by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.6%. The Chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 14: Economic inactivity ? the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled increased by 5.1% in the last 6 months to more than 2,455,000 working age people.
	Chart 15: Economic inactivity ? people looking after family The survey figures showing those looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work had been trending downwards but has been rising fairly steadily since early 2021. There are now 1,710,000 people looking after family and not working, compared to a low point of 1,590,000.
	Chart 16: Economic inactivity ? other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were placed in the economically inactive - other category. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, but has since declined. A very high proportion of this group want to work. There are now 1,012,000 people who are classified as economically inactive - other, 31% of which want to work. This is compared to a high point of 1,290,000.
	Chart 17: Employment rate three-year change in regions ? August to October 2022 This quarter, compared to 2019 5 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, the largest increase being in Scotland. The employment rate fell in 7 regions, the greatest fall being in the North West.
	Chart 18: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions ? August to October 2022 This quarter, compared to 2019 8 regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, the largest increase being in the East Midlands. The inactivity rate fell in 4 regions, the greatest fall being in Scotland
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