Labour Market Analysis | 13 September 2022


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 13 September 2022 Unemployment is 1,224,000, down by 70,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline is down by 76,000) and the unemployment rate 3.6%, is down by 0.2 percentage points on last month and decreased by 0.2 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed decreased by 6,300 on last month The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 834,000, down by 47,000 on the quarter, representing 12.2% of the youth population (reduced by 0.7 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 372,000, which decreased by 83,000 on the quarter. Vacancies in Jun-Aug 2022 (in the ONS official series) are 1,266,000 compared to the low point of 329,000 in April to June 2020. There are now 1.0 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 75.4% (which decreased by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s published figure and has fallen by 0.2 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Stephen Evans, Chief Executive at Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘Real wages continued to fall sharply, driven by high inflation. Capping energy prices at £2,500 per year for an average household will help. But further support is likely to be needed for households with the lowest incomes, who tend to spend the highest proportions of their incomes on essentials like energy. The labour market is showing signs of flattening, with the employment rate down and economic inactivity rate up, particularly due to rises in the number people with long-term health problems leaving the labour market. There are still 300,000 fewer people in work than before the pandemic, again highlighting the need to extend support to find work to all those that want a job, which is currently restricted mostly to those who are unemployed and on benefits. That should form a key part of any plan for growth. ’ Helen Gray, Chief Economist at Learning and Work Institute, said: ‘Given yesterday's weak GDP figures and the wider picture of sluggish productivity growth since 2008, increasing economic growth is a clear priority. The rise in economic inactivity amongst people aged 50-64 and those with long-term health problems, in combination with the lowest unemployment rate since 1974, means it is important that action is taken now to make work more compatible with the circumstances, aspirations and training needs of an ageing workforce. This will be essential to improve the prospects for economic growth in the months and years ahead.’ Labour Market Briefing Employment is up by 40,000 between February-April 2022 and May-July 2022. In the last 12 months employment is up by 337,000. Unemployment decreased by 76,000 between February-April 2022 and May-July 2022. Over this period, the unemployment rate is down by 0.2 percentage points, to 3.6% in the most recent quarter Economic inactivity is up by 194,000 between February-April 2022 and May-July 2022. The inactivity rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points to 21.7% in the quarter. The national claimant count decreased by 6,300 to 1,534,200. Youth unemployment is down by 83,000. There are 372,000 unemployed young people, and 230,000(3.4% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment is down by 37,000 this year. The number of employees has risen by 349,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment is down by 51,000 this quarter to 0.8 million, 10% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 310,000 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people fell by 57,000 since last month’s figures, to 372,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants increased last month by 5,800, to 254,200.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training (834,000) is down by 47,000 in the last quarter , or 5.3%. A little over two-thirds (72%) of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.
	Chart 5: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) rose by 4,000 over the last quarter and is now 111,000. Long-term unemployment for young people is normally counted as being unemployed for six months or more.
	Chart 6: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 264,000. There are 26,000 more people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months or more than before the pandemic (Dec 19-Feb 20), though this is now falling (either due to people finding work or moving into economic inactivity).
	Chart 7: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 7.6% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 3%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.5%. The quarterly change is -1.8 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, 0.1 points for 25 to 49 year olds, and -0.2 points for the over-50s.
	Chart 8: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100) The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 2.9 percentage points lower than in February 2020. This compares with an increase of 0.6 points for those aged 25 to 34 and no change for those aged 35 to 49. There was also a reduction in the unemployment rate of 0.3 points for those aged 50 to 64 and 0.4 points for those aged over 65. Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month reduced by 14,000 to 1,266,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures is down by 56,000 in the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 10: Experimental single month vacancies – whole economy survey The Office for National Statistics experimental single month vacancy estimates include sectoral information. As these are not seasonally adjusted, it is better to look at annual changes. The numbers are thousands of vacancies, at each time point. The annual change in thousands of vacancies for each sector is shown on the right.
	Chart 11: Unemployed people per vacancy The number of vacancies is approximately equivalent to the number of ILO unemployed (defined as both seeking work and available to start).
	Chart 12: UK employment Employment decreased by 46,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,746,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 13: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate is down by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.4%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures.
	Chart 14: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled has risen 5% in the last 6 months to more than 2.5 million working age people.
	Chart 15: Economic inactivity – people looking after family The survey figures showing those looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work had been trending downwards but have been rising steadily since early 2021.
	Chart 16: Economic inactivity – other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in this group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, and has continued at a high level. A very high proportion of this group want to work, and this increased over the period of the pandemic.
	Chart 17: Employment rate three-year change in regions – May to July 2022 This quarter, compared to 2019 4 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, the largest increase being in the West Midlands. The employment rate fell in 8 regions, the greatest fall being in Wales.
	Chart 18: Unemployment rate three-year change in regions – May to July 2022 This quarter, compared to 2019 5 regions showed a rise in the unemployment rate, the largest increase being in the South East. The unemployment rate fell in 6 regions, the greatest fall being in the East Midlands.
	Chart 19: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – May to July 2022 This quarter, compared to 2019 9 regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, the largest increase being in Wales. The inactivity rate fell in 2 regions, the greatest fall being in the West Midlands.
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