Labour Market Analysis | 19 July 2022


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 19 July 2022 Unemployment is 1,285,000 - 14,000 lower than last month’s published figure (the quarterly headline fell by 12,000). The unemployment rate, 3.8%, has fallen by 0.1 percentage points on last month and decreased by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,549,100, and has fallen by 20,000 on last month. The claimant rate is 3.9%. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 905,000, and has increased by 24,000 on the quarter, representing 13.3% of the youth population (down by 0.1 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 355,000, and is 31,000 lower than the previous quarter. Vacancies during March-May 2022 (in the ONS official series) numbered at 1,294,000, after recovering strongly from the low point of 343,000 in April to June 2020. There are now 1.0 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 76.0% (up by 0.2 percentage points on last month’s published figure and has increased by 0.4 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Stephen Evans, Chief Executive of Learning and Work Institute, commented: ‘The cost of living crisis is laid bare today as real regular pay saw its biggest quarterly fall on record dating back to the start of the century, seeing a drop of 2.8% from March to May 2022. With energy bills set to rocket further in the autumn, this must be top of the new Prime Minister's in-tray. But the crisis is being felt unevenly with larger pay rises in sectors like finance, up 6.2%, while the public sector saw the lowest pay rises, at 1.9% - much lower than inflation. With public sector pay bodies set to report shortly, this highlights the need for action to tackle recruitment and retention challenges in our public services. The UK has seen the biggest drop in its employment rate of the major G7 economies, driven by an exodus of over 50s from the workforce. Despite a welcome fall in economic inactivity of 144,000 in the last quarter, it iss still up 360,000 since the start of the pandemic. There are now twice as many people economically inactive due to sickness as there are unemployed people. This helps explain why, despite employment still being down, employers are struggling to find enough staff. Our recent report showed other countries recovering quicker than the UK. The Government should review and reinvest the underspend from its Plan for Jobs into a new plan to re-engage the thousands of people who left the workforce through the pandemic. Every young person deserves the chance to make the most of their talents, so supporting the hundreds of thousands of young people locked out of the jobs market must be a social justice priority. It's also an economic imperative, given employers are hiring at record levels but still struggling to fill all their roles. Today's figures show that, despite recent recovery, there are still 624,000 16-24 year olds who are not in full-time education but are economically inactive. With record vacancies, we need to tackle the issues uncovered by today's research to boost growth, improve our public finances, and help every young person reach their full potential. We continue to call on the Government to work with partners to urgently roll-out a 'Youth Guarantee' to support all young people to access a job, apprenticeship, or a high quality training opportunity.’ Labour Market Briefing Employment rose by 296,000 between December 2021 to February 2022 and March to May 2022. In the last 12 months employment increased by 671,000. Unemployment has fallen by 12,000 between December 2021 to February 2022 and March to May 2022. Compared to the previous quarter the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. Economic inactivity has fallen by 144,000 between December 2021 to February 2022 and March to May 2022. Compared to the previous quarter the inactivity rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 21.1%. The national claimant count fell by 20,000. Youth unemployment fell by 31,000. There are 434,000 unemployed young people, and 281,000(4.1% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. Self-employment reduced by 24,000 this year. The number of employees is up by 636,000 over the year. Involuntary part-time employment decreased by 66,000 this quarter to 0.8 million, or 10.5% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment rate is down by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%.
	Chart 2: The claimant count and UK unemployment compared The number of unemployed people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits is now 263,800 higher than the number of unemployed in the official measure.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people is down by 21,000 since last month’s figures, to 434,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants is down from last month's figures by 3,900, to 243,200.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (905,000) is down by 4,000 in the last quarter, or 0.4%. Two-thirds (68%) of young people not in full-time education or employment are economically inactive, rather than unemployed. To be counted as unemployed, people need to be both actively seeking work and available to start. People out of work who do not meet these criteria are counted as economically inactive.
	Chart 5: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 37,000 over the last quarter and is now 99,000. Long-term unemployment for young people is normally counted as being unemployed for six months or more. Youth long-term unemployment is now the lowest on record.
	Chart 6: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 290,000. There are 51,000 more people aged 25 and over out of work for 12 months or more than before the pandemic (December 2019 - February 2020), though this is now falling (either due to people finding work or moving into economic inactivity).
	Chart 7: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 9.1% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 3%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.6%. The quarterly change is -0.8 percentage points for 18 to 24 year olds, 0.1 points for 25 to 49 year olds, and 0.0 points for the over-50s.
	Chart 8: Unemployment rate changes by age (counting February 2020 as 100) The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is -1.4 percentage points compared to February 2020. The change is 0.5 points for those aged 25 to 34. The change is 0.0 points for those aged 35 to 49. The change is -0.2 points for those aged 50 to 64. The change is -0.5 points for those aged over 65. Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies this month fell by 3,000 to 1,294,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures increased by 11,000 In the last quarter. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 10: Experimental single month vacancies – whole economy survey The Office for National Statistics' experimental single month vacancy estimates include sectoral information. As these are not seasonally adjusted, it is better to look at annual changes. The numbers are thousands of vacancies, under each number, and on the right, the annual change in thousands of vacancies.
	Chart 11: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.0 unemployed people per vacancy. The number of vacancies is approximately equivalent to the number of ILO unemployed (defined as both seeking work and available to start).
	Chart 12: UK employment Employment rose by 156,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,863,000. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures. The trend is likely to continue upwards in the following quarter.
	Chart 13: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.9%. The chart shows both the official figures and the experimental monthly figures. The trend is likely to continue upwards in the following quarter.
	Chart 14: Economic inactivity – the long-term sick or disabled The number of people who are economically inactive (that is, not working and not currently looking for work) who are long-term sick or disabled has risen 1.9% in the last 6 months to more than 2.3 million working age people.
	Chart 15: Economic inactivity – people looking after family The survey figures showing those looking after family and not doing paid work or looking for paid work had been trending downwards from 2019 to 2020 but have been rising steadily since early 2021.
	Chart 16: Economic inactivity – other inactive In the Coronavirus period, people who were not working or looking for work due to Covid were included in this group. The number in this category increased sharply at the time, and has continued at a high level. A very high proportion of this group want to work, and this increased over the period of the pandemic.
	Chart 17: Employment rate three-year change in regions – March to May 2022 This quarter, three regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by London. The employment rate fell in nine regions, the greatest fall being in Wales.
	Chart 18: Unemployment rate three-year change in regions – March to May 2022 This quarter, six regions showed a rise in the unemployment rate, led by Eastern England. The unemployment rate fell in five regions, the greatest fall being in the East Midlands.
	Chart 19: Inactivity rate three-year change in regions – March to May 2022 This quarter, seven regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, led by Northern Ireland. The inactivity rate fell in four regions, the greatest fall being in the West Midlands
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