Labour Market Analysis | November 2020


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 10 November 2020 The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 2,633,700, down by 29,800 on last month, and up by 1.39 million since March, and the claimant rate is 7.3%. The ONS figure for 18-24 claimant unemployed is 516,100 in October, up by 281,400 or 119.6% on March. Vacancies in October have now recovered by 296,000 after falling 468,000 between February and May. Unemployment is 1,624,000, up by 101,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline is up by 243,000) and the unemployment rate 4.8%, and is up by 0.3 percentage points on last month and has risen by 0.7 percentage points on last quarter. The employment rate is 75.3% (is down by 0.3 percentage points on last month’s published figure and is down by 0.6 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Learning and Work Institute comment This full briefing supplements the short briefing we published earlier on Tuesday 10 November 2020. This briefing sets out analysis of ONS labour market statistics released on the morning of 10 November 2020. The data cover the number of people claiming benefits up to October 2020, and employment and unemployment figures for the period July to September 2020. Join us for an event tomorrow morning, to discuss the latest labour market figures and focus on how we can tackle the jobs gap. Stephen Evans, chief executive at Learning and Work Institute, commented: ‘Today’s data reflect the partial reopening of the economy during the summer. Total hours worked and vacancies rose, while the rise in unemployment was partly driven by more people starting to look for work though employment did fall too. Nonetheless, employment, hours worked, and vacancies remain below pre-pandemic levels. We face a long winter of tighter restrictions ahead. The extension of the furlough scheme will cushion the blow, but a record rise in redundancies shows we have tough times ahead. With tentatively positive signs for a vaccine, the case for continuing economic support to limit the damage is clear.’ The overall picture is of a weaker labour market: a sharp shock during the first lockdown from March, followed by some recovery during the summer as restrictions were eased, and then signs of further weakening during the autumn as economic support was planned to be reduced and restrictions were tightened again. Paul Bivand, associate director of statistics and analysis at Learning and Work Institute said: "These figures largely reflect the false dawn before the second wave of coronavirus spread. However, online vacancies were still rising in the latest figures, right up to the end of October, and the claimant count fell slightly (but was still extremely high). In the early briefing we showed that redundancies had risen strongly through September, though people made redundant in that period could be re-employed and furloughed now. However, we have seen a pattern of company failures that would make that difficult in some sectors." Employment fell by 164,000 between April 2019 to June 2020 and July 2020 to September 2020. In the last 12 months employment is down by 247,000. Unemployment rose by 243,000 between April 2019 to June 2020 and July 2020 to September 2020. The unemployment rate is up by 0.7 percentage points to 4.8% in the quarter. Economic inactivity has risen by 21,000 between April 2019 to June 2020 and July 2020 to September 2020. and the inactivity rate was unchanged at 20.9% in the quarter. The national claimant count fell by 29,800 in the month to October. The 'count date' for the claimant count was early in October, as local lockdowns were spreading across the country. Self-employment fell by 174,000 this quarter. Since January to March, the fall in self-employment has been 422,000, or 8.5% The number of employees is up by 20,000 in the quarter. Since January to March, the ONS survey number of employees is down 32,000 or 0.1%. The HMRC figures of payrolled employees show a much bigger fall. Involuntary part-time employment rose by 5,000 this quarter to 0.9 million, 11.1% of all part-time workers.
	Chart 1: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count has fallen by 29,800 in October, taking the total to 2,633,700. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment has fallen by 42,900 to 2,618,300. This change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today.
	Chart 2: UK unemployment (ILO) - the official estimate The latest unemployment figure is 1,624,000. It has risen by 101,000 from the figure published last month. The unemployment rate was up by 0.3 percentage points to 4.8%.
	Chart 3: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has risen by 21,000 since last month’s figures, to 602,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants fell last month by 2,800, to 516,100. There are now 125,000 more young claimants of Universal Credit or Jobseeker's Allowance than the number of unemployed young people who are not in education.
	Chart 4: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (969,000) has fallen in the past quarter by 101,000 , or 9.4%. The fall was entirely among the inactive, as the number of unemployed young people not in full-time education or training rose. The reason for this fall is that there has been a strong rise in full-time education participation. Over the last quarter this has risen by 271,000, nearly three times the fall in the number not in full-time education and out of work.
	Chart 5: Vacancies – whole economy survey Headline vacancies recovered very slightly this month, to 525,000. The ONS' experimental single-month vacancy figures shows a more substantial recovery from 327,000 in May, to 623,000 in October. The headline ONS vacancy figure is both seasonally adjusted and a three-month average. The chart shows both series.
	Chart 6: Experimental single month vacancies – whole economy survey The Office for National Statistics experimental single month vacancy estimates include sectoral information. As these are not seasonally adjusted, it is better to look at annual changes. The numbers are thousands of vacancies, under each number, and on the right, the annual change in thousands of vacancies.
	Chart 7: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 3.3 unemployed people per vacancy. This has fallen back as the number of vacancies has risen, despite increasing numbers of unemployed.
	Chart 8: Online vacancies to the end of October from Adzuna Job vacancies dropped to below half of the 2019 average following lockdown. ONS analysis suggests that it was this reduced hiring that led to falls in employment, rather than increased job loss. There had been a gradual increase as the lockdown had eased, but the number of vacancies at the start of November was just 70% of pre-crisis levels.
	Chart 9: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 12.3% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.9%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.6%. The quarterly change is up 2.1 for 18 to 24 year olds, up 0.5 for 25 to 49 year olds, and up 0.9 for the over-50s.
	Chart 10: UK employment Employment has fallen by 84,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,507,000.
	Chart 11: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate is down by 0.6 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.3%.
	Chart 12: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness rose, while the latest benefit figures (for May 2020) rose. The survey revision has resulted in a reassessment of the recent trend - previous figures had shown a sharp drop in the inactive, long-term sick, which has now been revised into a continuing upwards trend. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Universal Credit without work requirements (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. Survey responses as to the reasons for inactivity may be volatile at the moment.
	Chart 13: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents This chart shows claimants of out of work benefits as lone parents (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families). The survey figures (showing those looking after family) fell sharply while benefit measures rose slightly in the latest (May 2020) data.
	Chart 14: Employment rate annual change in regions to– July 2020 to September 2020 Compared to last year, three regions still showed a rise in the employment rate, while nine showed a fall. The largest rises were in London and Yorkshire and the Humber, and the largest falls were in the South West, Wales and Northern Ireland.
	Chart 15: Unemployment rate annual change in regions to – July 2020 to September 2020 Compared to last year, all regions showed a rise in unemployment. The largest rises were in the South West and London.
	Chart 16: Inactivity rate annual change in regions to– June 2020 to August 2020 Compared to last year, six regions showed a rise in the inactivity rate, led by the South West and the East Midlands, while five showed falls, led by London and Yorkshire and the Humber.
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