• Unemployment is 1,343,000, which has increased by 54,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline up by 63,000) and the unemployment rate was 3.9%, up by 0.1 percentage points on last month and also rose by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter.
• The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,246,100, rose by 17,300 on last month, and the claimant rate is 3.5%.
• The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 976,000, up by 2,000 on the quarter, representing 14.2% of the youth population (up by 0.1 percentage points).
• Youth unemployment (including students) is 506,000, and is up by 34,000 on the quarter.
• There are 1.7 unemployed people per vacancy.
• The employment rate is 76.5% (it showed no change on last month’s published figure and increased by 0.3 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure).

Learning and Work Institute comment

The latest labour market figures published on 17 March are positive with a large rise in employment in the quarter, despite the unexpected rise in unemployment.

Duncan Melville, chief economist at Learning and Work Institute, commented:

‘Much of the commentary on today's numbers is focusing on the surprise rise in unemployment in the quarter - up by 63,000. However, today's numbers are positive overall with another very substantial rise in employment of 184,000 in the quarter, and economic inactivity among people of working age also down markedly by 175,000. Hence, rising employment appears to be encouraging people to enter the labour market and search for work, which could explain the rise in unemployment. While overall unemployment is up, the proportion of people who have been long term unemployed for over 12 months has generally been falling since the first three months of 2019. Another positive sign is that the level of vacancies increased for the third month on the trot following nearly a year of decline.

However, not all of today's numbers are positive. New quarterly workforce jobs numbers were also released today, and these showed a continuing decline in employment growth down from 251,000 in the three months to March 2019 to just 68,000 in the three months to December 2019. Also, wage growth is continuing to moderate with increases down to 3.1 per cent and 1.5 per cent in real terms after taking account of inflation.

While today's numbers are positive, the outlook is very uncertain given the coronavirus. The precise magnitude of the impact of the coronavirus on the economy and the labour market is currently unknowable, but it will undoubtedly be negative and probably very substantially negative. The hope is that the impact will only be short term. In these circumstances bold actions by government to support people without incomes, because they cannot work, will be needed, so payments from Universal Credit must be speeded up as a matter of urgency. People affected must also be reminded of the availability of contributory Employment and Support Allowance, including for self-employed people, and the conditions for access to this must be eased further than has already happened. The negative economic shock of the coronavirus may well lead to a sudden drop in employment levels and a sudden rise in unemployment. To prevent this unemployment turning into long term detachment from the labour market, the government will need to stand ready to unveil a package of active policies to assist unemployed people.’

Paul Bivand, associate director for statistics and analysis at Learning and Work Institute, said:

'We are planning to remove some of the chart lines showing long-term JSA claimants, as these are increasingly affected by the lack of comparable Universal Credit figures. We hope to cover some of the same issues quarterly in greater depth, as the DWP statistics are now almost all quarterly.'

Employment increased by 184,000 between August to October 2019 and November 2019 to January 2020. In the last 12 months employment is up by 271,000.

Unemployment is up by 63,000 between August to October 2019 and November 2019 to January 2020. and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% in the quarter.

Economic inactivity decreased by 175,000 between August to October 2019 and November 2019 to January 2020, and the inactivity rate is down by 0.4 percentage points to 20.4% in the quarter.

The national claimant count rose by 17,300. This takes account of normal seasonal effects but adjusted figures are not published for local areas. The actual number of claimants, nationally, has risen by 53,200 in the month to February. Therefore, it should not be surprising that figures for local areas will show sharper rises compared to the national picture.

Youth unemployment is showing a quarterly rise. There are 506,000 unemployed young people, and 360,000 (5.2% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education.

The proportion of unemployed young people (not counting students) who are not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and therefore are not receiving official help with job search is now 34.9%.

A total of 58,000 were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count employment programme participants as ‘in employment’ by default. This number increased by 3,000 this quarter, though is now very low compared to previous years. Self-employment rose by 72,000 this quarter. The number of employees is up by 100,000 in the quarter. Involuntary part-time employment is up by 35,000 this quarter to 0.9 million, 10.8% of all part-time workers.The proportion remains much higher than the 7.4% in 2004.

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