Labour Market LIVE update


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 15 October 2019 Unemployment is 1,314,000, which is up by 20,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline increased by 22,000) and the unemployment rate 3.9%, has risen by 0.1 percentage points on last month and is also up by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,192,600, and has risen by 21,100 on last month, and the claimant rate is 3.3%. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 1,007,000, up by 58,000 on the quarter, representing 14.6% of the youth population (up by 0.9 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 494,000, up by 1,000 on the quarter. There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 75.9% and has fallen by 0.3 percentage points on last month’s published figure (and is down by 0.2 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure). Learning and Work Institute comment The labour market figures published on 15 October point to a labour market that is slowing. With ongoing Brexit uncertainty, it is difficult to see the situation improving. Duncan Melville, chief economist at Learning and Work Institute, commented: ‘The level of employment has fallen in the three months from June to August, and today’s labour market numbers also show the secondly monthly fall in employment. Both unemployment and economic inactivity among people of working age are up in both the month and the quarter. The claimant count rose again in September and is now 389,000 higher than it was two years previously. The level of vacancies has fallen again this month and is down materially on the levels seen around the turn of the year. All this is unwelcome news and is supported by recent survey evidence suggesting that current high levels of economic uncertainty are impacting negatively on companies’ hiring decisions. The labour market is slowing, and it appears that young people, in particular, are bearing the brunt of this. The number of young people not in employment, full-time education or training broke through the one million barrier in today’s number, and has increased by 10 per cent since January. We repeat our call to government to ensure that its No Deal planning, includes an action plan of labour market measures to help mitigate the potential adverse effect of a No Deal on employment and unemployment.’ Paul Bivand, Learning and Work Institute's associate director for statistics and analysis said: 'The fall in employment at national level and in two-thirds of UK regions and nations makes it more critical that our potentially more timely benefit measures are giving reliable indications. The claimant count is rising sharply towards the survey measure of unemployment, and it would be helpful for DWP and the ONS to reconcile these figures so we can see the overlaps more clearly - our figures are simply comparisons of totals.' Employment fell by 56,000 between March to May 2019 and June to August 2019. In the last 12 months employment has risen by 282,000. Unemployment increased by 22,000 between March to May 2019 and June to August 2019, and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% in the quarter. Economic inactivity rose by 57,000 between March to May 2019 and June to August 2019, and the inactivity rate is up by 0.1 percentage points to 21.0% in the quarter. The national claimant count increased by 21,100. This takes account of normal seasonal effects but adjusted figures are not published for local areas. The actual number of claimants, nationally, increased by 13,300 in the month to September. Therefore, it should not be surprising that figures for local areas will show slower rises in rates compared to the national picture. The overall claimant count has been rising following the full roll-out of Universal Credit. Part of this rise is that Universal Credit counts a wider range of claimants into the count as a wider range of claimants are required to seek work under Universal Credit, but there are also other factors too. Youth unemployment is showing a quarterly rise. There are 494,000 unemployed young people, and 357,000 (5.2% of the youth population) who are both unemployed and not in full-time education. The proportion of unemployed young people (not counting students) who are not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance and therefore are not receiving official help with job search is now 38.2%. A total of 57,000 were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count employment programme participants as ‘in employment’ by default. This number rose by 17,000 this quarter. Self-employment fell by 25,000 this quarter. The number of employees has fallen by 49,000 in the quarter. Involuntary part-time employment reduced by 62,000 this quarter to 0.9 million, 10.3% of all part-time workers.The proportion remains much higher than the 7.4% in 2004.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment figure is 1,314,000. It has risen by 20,000 from the figure published last month. The unemployment rate changed by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%.
	Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 12.1%; (158,000).
	Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 4,000 from last month’s figure and is now 125,000. The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 10,000. The count fell by 900 this month.
	Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 249,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance (but not Universal Credit) measure is 138,900.
	Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.8% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.9%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.5%. The quarterly change is up 0.1 for 18 to 24 year olds, down 0.1 for 25 to 49 year olds, and down 0.1 for the over-50s.
	Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (1,007,000) has risen in the past quarter by 58,000, or 6.1%. The rise was largely among the inactive, with the number of unemployed young people not in full-time education or training rising at a lower rate.
	Chart 7: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has risen by 6,000 since last month’s figures, to 494,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 3,200, to 226,900. There are 136,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance, 38.2% of all unemployed young people who are not students.
	Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count rose by 21,100 in September, taking the total to 1,192,600. ONS's claimant count before seasonal adjustment is up by 13,300 to 1,179,000. This change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today. Learning and Work Institute's seasonally adjusted estimate increased by 23,300 to 1,197,400
	Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) fell again this month, to 813,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average.
	Chart 10: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. The chart is affected by ONS's rounding of the released figures, but is clearly above its minimum.
	Chart 11: UK employment Employment has fallen by 84,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,693,000.
	Chart 12: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.9%.
	Chart 13: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness rose again, while the benefit figures are increasingly uncertain due to new claimants due to ill-health claiming either contributory Employment and Support Allowance (shown here) or Universal Credit, where new ill-health claimants are shown as unemployed.The survey estimate is the highest figure since spring 2016. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness.
	Chart 14: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents The survey figures (showing those looking after family) are falling slowly while benefit measures fell. The benefit figures are also affected by Universal Credit rollout, where new claims are now Universal Credit rather than Income Support. This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families).
	Chart 15: Employment rate quarterly change in regions and nations – June to August 2019 This quarter, four regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by the South West and the West Midlands. The employment rate fell in eight regions and nations, led by Wales and Scotland.
	Chart 16: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions and nations – June to August 2019 Five English regions showed a fall in the unemployment rate this quarter. Seven nations and regions showed a rise. The rises were led by Scotland and the East of England.
	Chart 17: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions and nations – June to August 2019 Overall, there was a 0.1 percentage point rise in the inactivity rate. Seven regions and nations showed rises in inactivity, led by Wales and Scotland.
This newsletter is produced by Learning and Work Institute and keeps readers up to date on a wide range of learning and work issues. If you have any questions, contact Paul Bivand © 2019 Learning and Work Institute. All rights reserved. Click here to unsubscribe \| Click here to see a web copy of this email