Labour Market LIVE update


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 13 August 2019 Unemployment is 1,329,000, up by 37,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline has risen by 31,000) and the unemployment rate 3.9%, is up by 0.1 percentage points on last month and up by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,163,400, and is up by 28,000 on last month. The claimant rate is 3.2%. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 964,000, and has risen by 31,000 on the quarter, representing 13.9% of the youth population (up by 0.5 percentage points). Youth unemployment (including students) is 502,000, and rose by 36,000 on the quarter. There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. The employment rate is 76.1% which rose by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s published figure and showed no change in the preferred quarterly measure. Learning and Work Institute comment The labour market figures published on 13 August are a mixed bag, but the outlook for the labour market is unlikely to be positive. Duncan Melville, chief economist at Learning and Work Institute, commented: "Recent months’ numbers have pointed to a slowing labour market. So, today’s substantial increase in employment - up by over 100,000 in the second quarter of the year come as a positive surprise, and economic inactivity has fallen. However, unemployment increased in the second quarter by 31,000, following six months of declines, and the level of vacancies has fallen again for the sixth month in succession. The claimant count numbers of people claiming unemployment related benefits are up again, by 28,000 this month and by 264,000 in the last year. The labour market position of young people appears to be worsening: the unemployment rate for young people (aged 16-24) has been rising and the number of young people who are not in employment or full-time education has been rising - up by 38,000 - since the start of the year. The tightness of the labour market is boosting wage growth. The three months to June 2019, saw wages (excluding bonuses) grow by 3.9%, the fast growth in over a decade, whilst more importantly for living standards real wages after accounting for inflation grew by 1.9%, the fastest increase since September 2015. While today’s numbers are rather mixed, the outlook for the labour market is not expected to be positive. The ongoing decline in the level of vacancies is likely to be a harbinger of weaker employment. Economic growth has been softening and last week the ONS reported that the economy shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019, the first fall since the last quarter of 2012. Historically, down turns in the labour market tend to follow those in the economy after a lag. The chances of this happening are heightened by the current very high levels of economic uncertainty driven by Brexit and in particular the rising chances of No Deal. " Paul Bivand, L&W's associate director for statistics and analysis said: "This month we have new figures for DWP benefits. These show a 200,000 increase in the number we are counting as incapacity-related. The Universal Credit statistics make it difficult to find the number of people claiming because of ill-health or disability, so these include Employment and Support Allowance claimants, UC claimants who are out of work with no work requirements, and those required to prepare for work. To these should be added the unknown number referred for a Work Capability Assessment." Employment increased by 115,000 between January to March 2019 and April to June 2019. In the last 12 months employment increased by 425,000. Unemployment is up by 31,000 between January to March 2019 and April to June 2019. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% in the quarter, still around the lowest level since 1974. Economic inactivity reduced by 47,000 between January to March 2019 and April to June 2019. and the inactivity rate has fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 20.7% in the quarter. The national claimant count increased by 28,000. This takes account of normal seasonal effects but adjusted figures are not published for local areas. The actual number of claimants nationally, has risen by 22,600 in the month to July. Therefore, it should not be surprising that figures for local areas will also show rises. These rises are partly driven by Universal Credit counting more people as required to look for work to get benefit support. Youth unemployment is showing a quarterly rise. There are still 502,000 unemployed young people, and 356,000 (5.1% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. The proportion of unemployed young people (not counting students) who are not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance and therefore are not receiving official help with job search is now 40.6%. A total of 49,000 were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count Work Programme (etc.) participants as ‘in employment’ by default. This number has risen by 6,000 this quarter. Self-employment has risen by 29,000 this quarter. The number of employees increased by 76,000 in the quarter. Involuntary part-time employment has fallen by 17,000 this quarter to 0.9 million, 10.7% of all part-time workers.The proportion remains much higher than the 7.4% in 2004.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment figure is 1,329,000. It is up by 37,000 from the figure published last month. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%.
	Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 16.9%; (225,000).
	Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has fallen by 1,000 from last month’s figure and is now 136,000. The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 12,200. The count fell by 1,100 this month, largely due to the continuing transition to Universal Credit.
	Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 264,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 140,600.
	Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.8% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.9%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.5%. The quarterly change is up 0.9 for 18 to 24 year olds, no change for 25 to 49 year olds, and down 0.2 percentage points for the over-50s.
	Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (964,000) has risen in the past quarter by 31,000 , or 3.4%. The rise was largely among the unemployed, with the much larger number of inactive young people not in full-time education or training rising at a lower rate.
	Chart 7: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has risen by 9,000 since last month’s figures, to 502,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 5,700, to 222,000. There are 145,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance, 40.6% of all unemployed young people who are not students.
	Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count is up by 27,960 in July, taking the total to 1,163,430. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment rose by 22,590 to 1,159,570. This change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today. Learning and Work Institute's seasonally adjusted estimate has risen by 30,480 to 1,167,240
	Chart 9: Vacancies – whole economy survey Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) fell this month, to 820,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average.
	Chart 10: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy.
	Chart 11: UK employment Employment increased by 62,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,811,000.
	Chart 12: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate showed no change over the quarter, at 76.1%.
	Chart 13: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness rose, while the benefit figure shows a 200,000 rise to the new February 2019 figures. This is calculated using the same method as the 2018 figures, counting Universal Credit claimants who are out of work and with no work requirements, as well as those with requirements to prepare for work, alongside Employment and Support Allowance claimant with no UC component (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness.
	Chart 14: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents The survey figures (showing those looking after family) are broadly flat while benefit measures fell. The benefit figures are also affected by Universal Credit rollout, where new claims are now Universal Credit rather than Income Support. This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families).
	Chart 15: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – April to June 2019 This quarter, 5 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by the South West and Northern Ireland. The employment rate fell in 7 regions, led by Wales and Yorkshire and The Humber.
	Chart 16: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – April to June 2019 4 regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. 8 showed a worsening. The improvements were led by the North West and Scotland.
	Chart 17: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – April to June 2019 Overall, there was a 0.1 percentage point fall in the inactivity rate. 5 regions showed rises in inactivity, led by the Wales and Yorkshire and the Humber.
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