Labour Market LIVE update


	Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 11 June 2019 Unemployment is 1,304,000, up by 6,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline down by 34,000) and the unemployment rate, 3.8%, showed no change on last month and was down by 0.1 percentage points on last quarter. The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 1,102,800, which rose by 23,200 on last month, and the claimant rate is 3.1%, up by 0.1 percentage points on last month. The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 945,000, up by 19,000 on the quarter, representing 13.6% of the youth population (up 0.3 percentage points) on last quarter. Youth unemployment (including students) is 480,000, and has fallen by 20,000 on the quarter. There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. This is up 0.1 this month. The employment rate is 76.1%, no change either on last month or on the preferred quarterly measure. Learning and Work Institute comment The labour market figures published on 11 June show a robust labour market but one that is clearly slowing down and losing momentum. Duncan Melville, chief economist at Learning and Work Institute, commented: ‘ Today’s numbers indicate that the labour market is remains robust but there are clear signs that the labour market is losing momentum. The employment rate remains the joint highest on record, the unemployment rate is at its lowest since the mid-1970s and the inactivity rate is very close to a historic low. So, it is tempting to apply former Prime Minister Harold MacMillan’s famous dictum that we "have never had it so good". However, as Irving Berlin warned us: "there may be trouble ahead". The employment rate, unemployment rate and inactivity rate all appear to be going sideways rather than improving as they had been up until a few months ago. Comparing today’s numbers with those released three months ago: employment is up 32,000 in the quarter, then it was up by 222,000, unemployment is down by similar amounts, by 34,000 in today’s numbers, 35,000 three months ago, but inactivity is up by 32,000 in today’s numbers compared to a fall of 117,000 three months ago. Hence, the slowdown in employment growth is so far being reflected in people leaving the labour market rather than rising unemployment. Consistent with this picture of a slowing labour market: the level of vacancies appears to be declining, having fallen from 861,000 four months ago to 837,000 in today’s numbers and the claimant count numbers are up again, by 23,000 this month and by 224,000 in the year. This is all not very surprising as economic growth has been slowing for a while and the effects of this are starting to show up in the labour market. The one piece of information which is out of line with the above picture is today’s workforce jobs numbers for March 2019 which show an increase in jobs since the end of 2018 of 255,000, an acceleration on recent changes. This rise was largely driven by a 180,000 rise in employee jobs. In contrast, today’s numbers from the Labour Force Survey show a fall in the number of employees over a similar period. Differences of this sort between these two sources have long perplexed economists and statisticians, so a close eye will need to be kept on the labour market in coming months.’ Paul Bivand, Learning and Work AD for Statistics and Analysis said: "This month we have removed further charts relating to Jobseeker's Allowance only from our briefing. This is due to the ending of new claims for income-related Jobseeker's Allowance as Jobcentres converted to Universal Credit full service. This process has resulted in, by May 2019, two-thirds of all JSA claims being over 12 months. There still remain 222,000 JSA claimants, but the number of new claimants for contribution-related JSA is only just over 10,000 a month." Employment increased by 32,000 between November 2018 to January 2019 and February to April 2019. In the last 12 months employment increased by 357,000. Unemployment is down by 34,000 between November 2018 to January 2019 and February to April 2019. and the unemployment rate reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in the quarter the lowest level since early 1975. Economic inactivity has risen by 32,000 between November 2018 to January 2019 and February to April 2019. and the inactivity rate is up by 0.1 percentage points to 20.8% in the quarter. The national claimant count is up by 23,200. This takes account of normal seasonal effects but adjusted figures are not published for local areas. The actual number of claimants, nationally, increased by 15,100 in the month to May. Therefore, it should not be surprising that figures for local areas will show smaller rises compared to the national picture. The claimant count is affected by the move to Universal Credit, at least partly due to counting people who are off work sick but not eligible for either employer sick pay or contribution-related Employment and Support Allowance who have full work requirements until such time as they are assessed for capacity for work. Youth unemployment is showing a quarterly fall. There are still 480,000 unemployed young people, and 338,000 (4.9% of the youth population) who are unemployed and not in full-time education. The proportion of unemployed young people (not counting students) who are not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and therefore are not receiving official help with job search is now 40.5%. A total of 37,000 were counted as in employment while on ‘government employment and training programmes’, where the Office for National Statistics continues to count Work and Health Programme (etc.) participants as ‘in employment’ by default. This number is down by 8,000 this quarter. Self-employment has risen by 74,000 this quarter. The number of employees has fallen by 38,000 in the quarter. Involuntary part-time employment is up by 1,000 this quarter to 0.9 million, 11.0% of all part-time workers. The proportion remains much higher than the 7.4% in 2004.
	Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment figure is 1,304,000. It has risen by 6,000 from the figure published last month. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%.
	Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 18.7%; (244,000). This follows from the strong rise in the claimant count since the full roll-out of Universal Credit, while ILO unemployment has fallen over the quarter.
	Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has risen by 8,000 from last month’s figure and is now 126,000. The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not Universal Credit where data remains unavailable) remains far behind, at 14,400. The count fell by 700 this month.
	Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 274,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 140,400.
	Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.2% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 2.9%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.6%. The quarterly change is down 0.2 for 18 to 24 year olds, no change for 25 to 49 year olds, and down 0.1 for the over-50s.
	Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (945,000) has risen in the past quarter by 19,000, or 2.1%. The rise was entirely among the inactive, with the number of unemployed young people not in full-time education or training falling.
	Chart 7: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has risen by 14,000 since last month’s figures, to 480,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 4,600, to 210,300. There are 137,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance, 40.5% of all unemployed young people who are not students.
	Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count is up by 23,200 in May, taking the total to 1,102,800. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment rose by 15,100 to 1,123,400. This change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today. Learning & Work's seasonally adjusted estimate increased by 31,300 to 1,106,700
	Chart 9: Jobseeker’s Allowance – proportion of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed The proportion of starters becoming 12-month claimants is now 12.8%. This is likely to rise over the next few months as the proportion of starters becoming 9-month claimants has risen by 1.2 percentage points over the last three months. These figures are consistent with those we have previously published, but Jobseeker's Allowance figures are becoming increasingly unreliable as measures of current performance (as both new claimants and some existing income-related claimants have moved to Universal Credit).
	Chart 10: Vacancies – whole economy survey Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) fell this month, for the fourth month in succession, to 837,000.
	Chart 11: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. This is a rise on last month.
	Chart 12: UK employment Employment has risen by 49,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,746,000.
	Chart 13: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate showed no quarterly change at 76.1%. The changes within the last quarter in the chart are within rounding limits of 76.1%.
	Chart 14: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness is largely stable, while the benefit figure fell. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. Universal Credit statistics for claimants by conditionality regime do not permit separation of those claiming on health grounds from people with care responsibilities (such as lone parents).
	Chart 15: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents The survey figures (showing those looking after family) rose while benefit measures fell sharply. The sharp fall is likely to be due to lone parents claiming Universal Credit, where the regular statistics do not provide information permitting counting the numbers of workless lone parents receiving benefits. This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families).
	Chart 16: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – February to April 2019 This quarter, 6 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by the East Midlands and the South East of England. The employment rate fell in 6 regions, led by the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber.
	Chart 17: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – February to April 2019 8 regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. 4 showed a worsening. The rises were led by the North East and Wales.
	Chart 18: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – February to April 2019 Overall, there was a 0.1 percentage point rise in the inactivity rate. 6 regions showed rises in inactivity, led by the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber.
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